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The Art of Thinking Clearly
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 7 hours and 49 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: HarperAudio
Audible.com Release Date: May 14, 2013
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B00CIB3KVA
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
In the 1960s psychologists began to examine scientifically, how people think, decide and take action. The result, explains the author of this book, Rolf Dobelli, was a “theory of irrationality that states: thinking is in itself not pure, but prone to error.†This, they found, was true of all people, including the highly intelligent, resulting in everyone falling into the same cognitive errors.More interestingly, it appears we all “systematically err in the same direction.†If this is indeed true, it means we all make predictable mistakes. If it is true, and it appears to be, we should be able to fix at least some of them and avoid making these errors in our lives.Dobelli has gathered 99 errors common to us all. He provides short, amusing and pithy insights into their form and causes. This has not made his life error free, he reports. However, “to make things simple, I have set myself the following rules: in situations where the possible consequences are large, I try to be as reasonable and rational as possible when choosing… In situations where the consequences are small I forget about rational optimisation and let my intuition take over.â€This book is a useful compendium of error. Reading this book will certainly increase one’s awareness of possible errors, which will lead to better decisions. To illustrate, I have chosen five errors of the Dobelli’s 99.Social ProofYou are roaming the Serengeti some 50,000 years ago, and your hunter-gather companions suddenly break into a desperate run away from some disturbance. What should you do? Mindlessly follow, or consider the possibility that it is a gazelle rather than a predator. Having seen a thoughtful companion become some animal’s lunch you run with the crowd.“Social proof†is the legacy of this herd instinct that dictates that individuals are behaving correctly when they act the same as other people. Social proof is behind stock market bubbles, as well as stock market stampedes. It is no different in the worlds of fashion, management techniques, and diets.Social proof informs even simple decision such as selecting a restaurant in an area with which you are unfamiliar. It seems sensible to choose the one that is full over a poorly patronised one.Novelist W. Somerset Maugham put the error of social proof succinctly: ‘If 50 million people say something foolish, it is still foolish.’Sunk Cost FallacyThe film was awful. After an hour, Dobelli whispered to his wife: ‘Come on, let’s go home.’ She replied : ‘No way. We’re not throwing away $ 30.’ The $ 30 is not reason to stay, that would be a thinking error. The money was been spent, and will not be returned. This is an example of the sunk cost error.So often in business, there is the sense that having invested so much, it would be wrong to stop now. Stopping now, makes the investment seem a mistake. The sunk cost fallacy is most dangerous when we have invested time, money, energy, commitment or love in something.The need for consistency drives this type of irrational behaviour. Deciding to cancel the project before it is completed is to admit that we had made a mistake.Sometimes the consequences of this thinking error costs lives as when America extended their involvement in the Vietnam War. Their thinking: ‘We’ve already sacrificed so much for this war; it would be a mistake to give up now.’ReciprocityPsychologist Robert Cialdini has studied the phenomenon of reciprocity and concluded that people have discomfort feeling they are indebted to another person.Dobelli offers this example: “A supplier of screws invites a potential customer to join him at a big sports game. A month later, it’s time to order screws. The desire not to be in debt is so strong that the buyer gives in and places an order with his new friend.â€This phenomenon has a long history. When primitive man’s food supplies were subject to high fluctuations, he needed others to share their food with him. When he killed an animal too large to eat in one day, he would share the meat with others in his group. Doing this would ensure that they share their meat with him when he is short.When approached in the supermarket, with an offer of a taste of wine, a chunk of cheese or a handful of olives, Dobelli advises to refuse the offer. The error of reciprocity has led many to ending up a pantry full of goods they do not even like.Contrast EffectWe judge something to be beautiful, expensive or large only if we have something ugly, cheap or small to compare it to.Experiments indicate that people will walk an extra ten minutes to save $ 10 on food. The same people, however would not walk ten minutes to save $ 10 on a $ 1,000 suit. The whole category of discount business is only viable because of this error, Dobelli claims.In the investment arena, the error leads people to believe a share is good value because it is 50% below the peak price. The share price is what it is, and comparison is irrelevant. All that matters is whether the share goes up or down in the future.The contrast effect also plays out in the social arena. If you are dating it is not prudent to double date with your supermodel friend. This makes you appear less attractive than you really are!Chauffeur KnowledgeAccording to Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s business partner, there are two types of knowledge. “Real knowledge†is what people have when they have invested time and effort to understanding a topic. “Chauffeur knowledge†is the result of learning how to put on a show. Warren Buffett uses the phrase, ‘circle of competence’ to avoid this error. ‘You have to stick within what I call your circle of competence. You have to know what you understand and what you don’t understand. It’s not terribly important how big the circle is. But it is terribly important that you know where the perimeter is.’It is so easy to not confuse the company spokesperson, the newscaster, and the cliché generator with those who possess true knowledge. You can recognize the difference because the true experts know what they know and what they do not know.This book is a “must read!†We cannot do enough to protect ourselves from our thinking errors and the author sites 99 such errors. Much of the material in this book can be found scattered elsewhere. The value of this book is that the information is in one place.Readability Light --+-- SeriousInsights High --+-- LowPractical High --+-- Low*Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of Strategy that Works.
Each chapter was clear and concise in pointing out fallacies and errors in thinking, that if headed, would prevent a lot of mistakes, heartache and errors. It has just enough examples and explanations to become clear or are reminded of biases, fallacies and lazy thinking. It ought to be mandatory reading. If more people were clear about how they make decisions, adopt opinions or embrace beliefs, the more thoughtful and rational our society would be. I love the book and have given it as gifts several times. I wish he would have his 2nd book translated into English too so I could give it as gifts also.
I read Nassim Taleb's Fooled By Randomness and then started reading this book. It felt like deja vu in the first few chapters since so much content has been lifted directly from FBR. I didn't do word-for-word comparisons, but others have. The plagiarism was so strong, I had to go research it to make sure I wasn't fooling myself. Sure enough, Dobelli has been outed as a plagiarist. I got through 30 chapters or so before I started feeling too guilty to continue.I can't even recommend this if you want a cliff notes version of Taleb, Ariely, Kahneman, et. al. Just read the originals. They go way more in-depth and properly reference the work of others.
Is this an art? I mean, thinking clearly? Having read a lot on the subject and trying to be as cold headed as possible on most situations, I concluded that the most important thing you can do, if not in real danger, is not to take decisions in a rush. Take your time and think it over. Good thinking takes time. Ponder. We have a lot of automatic responses in our brian cells and that is not always good...!That is why a book like this one becomes useful. You will find lots of examples of mental errors that we all commit almost daily and mostly for the benefit of others. And later, this hurts.So keep this book near and read again one or two chapters every day..It is easy reading and also very enjoyable...
You remember those logic fallacies we learned in school-- after this doesn't necessarily mean because of this, don't argue in a circle, don't set up a straw man just to knock it down, don't fall for either this or that . . . . This book covers about 80 more of those, devoting several pages to each, with interesting real-life examples. Much better handled than the way it was presented to us in school.
Although I was disappointed when I first started to read this book, I am glad I read it. What I found so disappointing was the fact the chapters were so short, and there were 100 of them. However, once I got into the book and accepted the reality that I was enjoying a "100" item book, I then could appreciate the writer's honest style and his important message(s). As an administrator at work and a father at home, I am always making decisions which not only affect me but others. Dobelli gives much insight into why we make poor or bad decisions as well as tips on how to improve our decision making. The author never claims to be perfect, but does show how and why we make the decisions that we do. This book is worth the money to buy and the time to read it more than once.
I loved the simple prose style and the crispness of the arguments. In some of the similar books including those referred to here.. The details of the experiments and model doesn't necessarily serve a great purpose for the non technical reader. What I missed here was pulling it together.. Clearly 100 issues are not the right way to look at cognitive pitfalls... I believe a lot more value would have come from bundling it together because realistically there are maybe really 10 broad dimensions through which this plays out.
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